Tensions between Israel and Iran erupted into full-scale war following a massive Israeli airstrike that killed several top Iranian commanders and nuclear scientists. The strike, dubbed Operation Rising Lion, marked the most aggressive Israeli action against Iran in decades — and the conflict has only escalated since.
What triggered the war?
According to The Observer, Israel launched a surprise night-time strike on dozens of Iranian sites, including a military base in Tehran where senior figures from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard were meeting — despite warnings they shouldn’t gather in one place due to the threat of imminent attack (The Observer).
That strike killed senior Iranian commanders and nuclear experts. Since then, Israel has continued bombing military, nuclear, and energy infrastructure, while Iran has fired hundreds of missiles in retaliation. Some got through Israel’s Iron Dome defences, killing civilians and stoking fears of broader regional war (AP News).
How did Israel pull it off?
According to The Times of Israel, the operation had been in the works for years. Code-named Rising Lion, it involved more than 200 Israeli aircraft — around two-thirds of its combat air force. Mossad had smuggled in special forces, drones, and precision weapons. They even set up a secret drone base near Tehran (Times of Israel).
Israeli pilots were able to neutralize Iran’s air defences and hit mobile missile launchers as they emerged from bunkers. This allowed Israel to establish air dominance over large parts of the country in the opening hours.
Why attack now?
According to analysts quoted in Prospect and The Guardian, Israel acted at a moment of Iranian weakness. Its key allies — Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Assad regime in Syria — had all suffered recent defeats or collapses. Iran’s air defence systems were still damaged from earlier Israeli strikes (Prospect, The Guardian).
What’s more, a 60-day ultimatum from the US for Iran to accept a new nuclear deal had just expired. Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu, under pressure at home, saw the moment as a rare strategic opportunity to strike — and strengthen his position in the process.
Will Israel succeed?
Experts say it’s far from guaranteed. The Economist described the offensive as a “huge gamble” — Iran’s nuclear program is far more advanced and dispersed than those of Iraq or Syria, both of which Israel successfully attacked in 1981 and 2007. Even if Iran’s current sites are destroyed, its knowledge and capabilities remain. Its program could be rebuilt — possibly in an even more aggressive form (The Economist).
Israel also lacks a clear exit strategy. Unless the Iranian regime collapses or the US intervenes more directly, the war could drag on. Both sides are already burning through weapons at an unsustainable rate. While Iran is running low on missiles, Israel’s supply of Iron Dome interceptors is also limited (Financial Times).
What happens next?
There are a few possible outcomes:
- De-escalation: Tehran could accept some losses and quietly return to nuclear talks with the US. This would require significant political maneuvering, but it could bring a fragile peace (The i).
- Wider escalation: Iran might retaliate further by trying to block the Strait of Hormuz — a key route for global oil shipping. That would risk dragging other countries into the conflict.
- Endless conflict: The most likely scenario, some experts say, is a “tit-for-tat forever war,” where both sides exchange limited strikes with no clear resolution.
- US involvement: Former president Donald Trump has warned Iran to surrender and has hinted the US could join Israel in bombing Iranian nuclear sites. This would mark a major escalation, despite Trump’s earlier promise to avoid Middle Eastern wars (Financial Times).
Bottom Line:
Israel’s strike was bold, devastating, and precise — but also a major risk. With no clear path to victory and rising regional tensions, the situation could spiral into prolonged warfare. Whether peace or escalation follows will depend not only on Israel and Iran, but on how the US and other powers respond in the coming weeks.
